Obscurity of Unlikely Facts

In this era of vast flow of information, it has become harder and harder for anybody to keep up with any topic of interest in a comprehensive way. This particularly applies to topics which provoke heated debates and appeals to mankind's intrinsic desire to reinforce their already existing opinions and views.

To this end, I've been playing around with a thought pattern lately which I've now fancily dubbed the law of Obscurity of Unlikely Facts. The purpose of this rather simple "check-list" of a cognitive bias can be applied rather universally, though in fields where it's hard to quantify and to measure a phenomenon in an exact manner it's harder. Simply put the idea behind the whole thing is the saying "Even a Blind Chicken Finds a Kernel of Corn Now and Then". This saying doesn't seem very popular in English, but it's used time to time in Finnish.

The basic idea is, that if we can do the (false) dichomization on whatever topic to be able to say whether a certain fact is TRUE or FALSE, let's say on a political debate, usually people have a set of e.g. 5 main commandments they follow. Suppose a person with an agenda posting the following list (which might be in a narrative format but can be reduced to a list of main hypotheses):

The great Tomato debate thread example:

Arguments by tomato-specialist Foo Bar:
1) Natural tomatoes are always yellow
2) Tomato farmers have gone too far in bringing out unnatural red tomatoes
3) Farmers are backed up by an international tomato X company wanting us to eat addictive (red) tomatoes
4) All tomato farmers are evil
5) Tomato farmers want to make a profit

A pro-red tomato person counters this post in a relevant forum, and pushes in for a counter-attack. He makes a list of the hypotheses and starts collecting counter-material. He then posts the following post (shortened from what you would encounter in real-life):

Counter-post by red-tomatoist Qwerty Asdfg:
"Mr. Bar recently posted a seriously misguided list of curious facts that I feel need to be corrected. He claims that all natural tomatoes are always yellow, but we have discovered many varieties of tomatoes in the wild that are by nature red, as recently published in the International Journal of Tomatoes by Prof. Tomatogic et al. Furthermore, as we encounter these red tomatoes in the wild, it is hilarious to even propose that farmers would be the ones propagating the advance of red tomatoes over yellow ones - majority of tomato subtypes are red, as shown by Prof. Tomatogic. There is zero evidence that e.g. Prof Tomatogic would have any affiliations to company X, and looking at their catalogy at my nearby tomato store I discovered that they do offer a large variety different colours of tomatoes, including yellow ones. Bringing in X in relation to tomato farmers is just ridiculous. This all just shows how misguided Mr. Bar is in his original post; to claim that tomato farmers are evil is just a cherry on the top, and tomato farmers do not want to make a profit - they just aim to produce the healthiest of products and take great pride in their work!"

Now, for starters, both posts by Bar and Asdfg would rub me the wrong way. Both are very extreme and show no signs of lenience towards the opposing view, which in my opinion is the key to detecting a triggered argument which should be taken with a truck-load of salt. But the point of the law of Obscurity of Unlikely Facts is to systematically evaluate Asdfg's counter-arguments, disregarding how ridiculous the original claims may have been.

While Asdfg appeals to reason and even science in his shooting-down of mr. Bar's post, I find above sort of counter-posts questionable. First of all, it addresses every single point from mr. Bar directly in a list-like manner, even if it's narrative. When I see this sort of counter-post, red lights start flashing. To me, it only indicates that Asdfg has first decided that mr. Bar's arguments are to be proven wrong, and then Asdfg has collected the evidence and/or rhetoric arguments to address every single one of them. A statistical basis for the law could probably be found in False Discovery Rate or the lack of corrections for multiple testing, but that's beyond this post.

Now the key point is that when I see somebody go through their opposer's supposed arguments in this non-constructive, list-like systematic way, it makes me question Asdfg's motives - he or she has probably not even tried to understand the original arguments and/or taken the time to consider whether they can be interpreted in a manner that is true.

To summarize the law of Obscurity of Unlikely Facts:
The longer the list of arguments by person A, the more likely that at least one or more of these arguments are true to at least a reasonable extent. In reverse, the longer the list the A's opposer B shoots down systematically, the more likely the person B is biased to just counter A without a proper, through-out and fair inspection. There are multiple factors that affect this (e.g. ad hominem yes/no) or lenience in B's comments, but a systematic list vs. list discussion is very likely to include a degrading amount of cognitive bias and probably ought to be ignored altogether.

If you engage in multiple discussions of sensitive topics, I have found the above simple rule useful in filtering out discussions where the discussion is just not worth my time. Usually they degrade into a kindergarten-level "yes! no! yes! no!" poking spiced with ad hominem, so it's better to move on to a better forum/thread if one really wishes to find out information on the various views to the topic. But above rule can also be used to detect discussions that are a great source of humorous content (Dunning-Kruger effect usually increases in this case as a function of time), in which case one should go grab some popcorn, just sit back, relax and see it unfold in its glorious marvel.

Väsyneen Värssy

Väsyneen Värssy

[Kalevalaisen runomitan mukaan]

Väsy/neenä / virstan / verran
Rämpi / rääsy / roudan / rotua
Mailin / mitan / päähän / päästyä
Olon / aidon / anoa / aikoi
Luoda / lujaks / erheen / elon
Luonne / lumen / lapsen / laihan
Huurteen / huoneen / tumman / talven
Lämmöks / lähteen / muuttaa / muodon

Aurin/gon al' / armoa / ammens
Pimeän / pitkän / taival / taivaan
Kuusten / kuiskeen / mättääl / metsän
Jäätyi / jääkär / matkal / marssin
Tutta/vaks tuo / Tuonen / taimen
Puisen / poven / tuvan / tutuks
Pisti / pitkäks / mullan / maille
Ikui/seen iän / vieraaks / vakaaks

Kasvoi / kukka / lemmen / ladun
Laidun / laineen / vehnän / vinhan
Sikis / sieltä / uusi / uurna
Kuurna / kenen / leivän / leveän
Päivän / päätteeks / leivon / lennon
Siivet / siroet / suojaan / surun
Tuiskeen / tuiman / pohjan / pojan
Mieli / milloin / maata / malttais?

-TDL '17

The Pharaoh's Bentley

The Pharaoh's Bentley

So in 2013, one of the richest men in Brazil by the name of Mr. Scarpa (much easier to refer to him this way), announced that he would be burying in a "future" grave of his a million dollar Bentley luxury car. He had the inspiration from the ancient Egypt's pharaohs, who would be buried in their huge graves - pyramids - with their vast wealth, gifts, and utilities to be ready for them in the afterlife. So Mr. Scarpa had an inspiration, and a million dollar Bentley is not much for some.

This was naturally met with extreme prejudice and an outrage from the general public - how can somebody be so irresponsible? Waste some much money on nothing? Give it to the poor! Totally unattached to reality! Trying to evade taxes?! Etc. Mr. Scarpa appeared on multiple talk shows and similar interviews to explain his motivations and how he admired the ancient Egyptians for this grandeur, and that he had every right to do this move - and nobody can deny that from him, definitely. The media followed his steps closely as he progressed to build this structure for lowering his beloved 1,000,000$ Bentley to a final resting place, where he'd presumably eventually join it.

When it the time came for the burying of the Mr. Scarpa's Bentley, he was ready and set to go to lower the million dollar beauty to a deep pit in the ground, when he revealed the genius in his stunt. He was never going to lower the Bentley to a deep pit - instead the scolded millionaire turned to the public, turning their outrage against themselves; numerous people are buried with wealth much greater than a mundane Bentley - their organs. The whole plan of Mr. Scarpa's stunt was to promote being an organ donor, and he had himself been close to death a time ago, realizing the mortality and spending two months in coma. Possibly receiving new piece of the man's cogwheels (I'm not sure of this though but still), he had a great point to make.

The Pharaoh's Bentley is a great story and I was thinking of it tonight during insomnia, though it was much more distressing thoughts that originally kept me up. But the Pharaoh's Bentley made me think of why am I not yet an organ donor (I do donate 0- blood rather regularly, though I've been denied donor a few times lately due to anemia). We feel sacred of our bodies - what if I'm still alive when I'm being buried? In coma, just missed the pulse for a few beats and had a wrong diagnosis? In some countries, people were buried  with bells attached above their graves and a six feet rope reaching all the way to the coffin in case they were alive after all. The feeling of being accidentally killed, even if chances are extremely low, is extremely distressing.

Furthermore, we do feel that our body is a 'whole'. If I'm missing my kidneys, liver, eye(s), heart, ... it's something that was mine, was part of me on my journey, and what partly defined me - how can it be just 'installed' on somebody else? I guess this comes down to what extent we can our selves to our body just beyond the nervous system, which starting from reflexes has voluntary and involuntary functions that make us who we are. I do feel strange thinking that for example my kidney might go to somebody else. But when I think that the somebody might be a kid with a kidney disorder, it starts becoming more clear why it'd be a waste to put it down with me and let it rot. After all, I don't think anybody will deny the fact that eventually we'll be just a scrap of dust, hair and bone - religious beliefs and awkward alternatives like embalming aside. The living issue will inevitably be gone, while it could've served somebody else in very drastic ways. The Pharaoh's Bentley is a great initiative I think, I just need to overcome my own prejudices. I don't know why I remembered it today, but it's definitely worth sharing.

From dust to dust, yet it's not that simple with modern medicine.

Island

Island

When I was a child, I locked up in my cocoon

When I was an adolescent, I had no place to be

When I was a young adult, I feared losing my self

When I grew to be an adult, I became a cogwheel

I stepped deep into the river of discovery

I cast my hand into the stream of science

I tipped my toe by the ocean of mankind

I devoured a forefinger sip and then vomited

Albeit I've never found an another soul here-in

Every night some hidden stranger within me 

Sets ablaze the lamp in the lighthouse up-hill

-TDL, Dec '16

Kuuden Jalan Unilaulu

Kuuden Jalan Unilaulu

Verestävä tiimalasi sikiön ääriviivaan piirrettiin
Kudottiin kohdussa ajat tulevat syntyneen sinettiin

Tyhjän taulun vahassa tummia jälkiä eripuria
Menneistä ajoista vuollettu sisimpään jo uria

Vanhana syntyi varjoon kasken maan pohjolan
Tuhkaa silloin varpahilla asti hällä kuuden jalan

Elon kujilla vaunun rattaat eteenpäin kävi ain
Sivukujilla sortui joku ennen aikaansa vainahain 

Ajallaan sulkeutuu kerran maa peitoksi jokaisen
Kuminaa soi turvekaton päällä askeleet tantereen

Kapaloonsa hyiseen ulkokuoren sen kietoo äitimaa
Huopanaan multaa kerros ohut läheisten lapioimaa

Kehdosta tästä huokailevat nukkuneet sukupolvet
Ihmisestä vie koivu iäiseen majaan tuoreet juuret

Mahlaa ja puusokeria uuttaa eesmennyt laps tää
Toviksi armosta viel siis hetkeks keskuutemme jää

(TDL, July 2016; Updated in August and September 2016)

A Coma-inducing Injection of Life

A Coma-inducing Injection of Life

"Discount ticket for one", I recall offering the fee  

At a film threater, wide screen, easily seats for dozens 

but the cashier winked and said "this one's for free"

Companied by an audience in shackles, restraints, frozen

Maybe a small box office hit, director's shooting star

In the the opening night I shivered, felt so real back then

Genre of drama, maybe mystery, rumored a cheap CGI spar

This movie measured, weighted, and found an ok 6.5 out of 10

Some applaud out of the kind habit and vanish to the mist

Once it's over, familiar faces shake hands yet flee to stroll 

The memories turned to ash and I dwelled in-within my cyst

I leave last as I turn off the lights and halt the film roll

A lifetime later I wander searching for a decent copy 

So I discover myself as a VCR at some flimsy flea market

But at least the cover art's decent, can't pass it by

Remember no refunds, just mind the case is like a casket

My mind is as bland as the plastic memoir, made in China

The tape melts and slithers between my fingers as dust

The anxiety sets in, and I start to produce more saliva

I grab, gather and devour it to satisfy my curious lust

The dirt is bitter and sweet, like my life turned migraine 

Desperately I decide to snort and shoot it deeper within

The flesh howls in pain, but I inject the signal yet again

My veins cry for mercy, yet seeking for meaning there-in

Then I snap; I was sitting in the theater alone, alone all the years

I imagined all the people there, I imagined the whole bloody flick

There never was a theater, I was just bound in a mind behind my eyes

Did I ever even exist? Is this a sick joke, I mean, what the fuck?

A brain in a jar

Life behind bars

Rukouksenkaltainen

Rukouksenkaltainen

Olkapään kuppiin vääntäisi,
Nilkan väljän kiristäisi,
Lyhyen varren vahvistaisi,
Harvan päälaen paikkaisi.

Jänteet väsyneet vahvistaisi,
Kallon murtuneen uudistaisi,
Nivelet harmaat kiillottaisi,
Perkeleen nuolen katkaisisi.

Kädet amputoidut korvaisi,
Ihraisen vatsan veistäisi,
Jalat kuolion herättäisi,
Silmät puhjotut parsisi.

Ajatuksen särkyneen korjaisi,
Traumat jäytävät parantaisi,
Itseinhon terveeksi tekisi,
Tuhoavan ajatelman tappaisi.

Ahdistuksen kasteen kuivaisi,
Pitkät varjomaiset valaisisi,
Heittimet valon varjostaisi,
Väsyneen uudeksi voimistaisi.

Särkyneen soiton virittäisi,
Soinnut paikoilleen viilaisi,
Katkenneen kielen vaihtaisi,
Kuluneen muodon uudistaisi.

Rakkauden astian täyttäisi,
Huolen soveliaan sovittaisi,
Viisauden voiman kertoisi,
Sielun matkan virvoittaisi.

Turhamaisen aikani täyttäisi,
Paikkani täällä näyttäisi,
Merkityksen sen paljastaisi,
Verellä pahuuteni peittäisi.

Esiripun syrjään sysäisi,
Näyttämölle kädestä veisi,
Kanssani sille kumartaisi,
Minut itselleni esittelisi.

Minun aurinkoni kituu kuolemaa,
mutta odotan kuin kuuta nousevaa.

(TDL; June 2016)

Existential Nihilism - Eksistentiaalinen Nihilismi

Existential Nihilism

Only nothingness dwells here.

--

Eksistentiaalinen Nihilismi

Täällä asuu vain tyhjyys.



(TDL; June 2016)