keskiviikko 16. marraskuuta 2016

Guinney et al. The Lancet Oncology: Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Guinney et al. 

The Lancet Oncology: Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data 

I am a shared first author, and this is the result of DREAM 9.5 mCRPC challenge. Hoping to have this as the crown jewel of my dissertation.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS1470-2045(16)30560-5/fulltext

sunnuntai 13. marraskuuta 2016

The Mensa-Dilemma

The Mensa-Dilemma


So I happened to bump into a friend's forum post with claimed high IQ from a Mensa test today and it reminded me of what I've dubbed 'the Mensa-Dilemma', first time like a year ago. I've been sometimes intrigued of taking a Mensa test, and being what I am, I've evaluated that I'd pass the test. By how much, that I wouldn't know. I could be delusional and might very well fail it as well, so that option has to be open. If I am delusional I'd estimate that I'd still be approximately at the borderline, by mirroring my academic/career/skill achievements in comparison to the common populace (if I remember right Mensa was supposed to be top 5%, 2.5% or 1%, forgot the exact quantile). IQs seem to be kind-of pitch in freebies in certain forums, with nothing to back it up with (i.e. proof), and even if there was, it is used in irrelevant contexts (a high IQ person may very well be incapable of functioning in a specific narrow field).

But what leads to the dilemma is that I loathe the term IQ. Reducing human intelligence (or artificial intelligence or what-ever sentient being in question) to a single numeric value is fundamentally absurd. I've always admired people like ancient Greek philosopher-mathematicians or people like Da Vinci, who were geniuses on multiple fields: inventor, painter, mathematician. Quite the genius, nobody can deny that. However, when projected to a single dimensional numeric value, which bases emphasis on logical thinking, they might've ended up being "mediocre geniuses". So a 170er could go to a 150er and boast in the smaller quantile digits of how they're in the 170er-club. Human mind is nearly incapable of compherehending extremely small or high numbers or probabilities, as well as distribution quantiles, thus in practice this 150er probably is just as smart as the 170er.

The mixture of loathing IQ and the intiguing curiousity of a Mensa-test result form the basis of what I called the Mensa-Dilemma, here as a 2x2 table:

.........Did I take a Mensa test?
................................._____Yes_(A)__________No_(B)_____
Did I pass?..............Yes_(1).|......A1......|.......B1.......|
.........................No__(2).|......A2......|.......B2.......|
.................................---------------------------------


The problem rises when I consider all the 4 possibilities, as I can only lose in this game:

- A1: I took a test and I passed test. I feel guilty for trying to prove myself, while already in the beginning I had already estimated that I'd quite easily pass the test. The margin by which I'd pass might affect my opinion. But most likely I'd just cancel my membership right away after feeding my curiousity, but in order to not go for a holier than thou -attitude, I'd probably only tell my wife about the whole thing. I'd regret taking the test because I was right right in the start, and I "lowered" myself in my own standards due low self-esteem or some strange need to prove myself. But it's only a test. People who throw around Mensa-stuff are generally doing it randomly and it only makes the conversations awkward or malicious.

- A2: So I took a test and I failed. This would of course be a big bump on my self esteem. So am I just a random stranger in the street? Why am I even considering philosophical, artistical, or natural scientific achievements, when I have been shown by a metric to be possibly only a mediocre citizen? That'd be hard to swallow. I might go into researching IQ tests more in detail and come up with a false explanation as to why this whole thing's a fiasco, but I don't think I'd fall that low.

- B1: So I never took the test, but if I did, I would pass. I will never find out that I would've passed the test (or by how much), and every time Mensa pops up, I will probably presume I would belong to B1-category - but I got nothing to back it up with. "Sure I could take a Mensa test and top it easily" sounds as vain as it can be.

- B2: So I never took the test, but if I did, I wouldn't even pass. I live in happy ignorance of my own mediocrity, but still I presumably consider myself to be á priori B1-class. It will probably affect my conclusions, behaviour, human interactions, et cetra. But there is always the scare in the back of my head, that what if I'm a B2'er? I must know, I couldn't be a B1'er... could I? Without the test, I would find myself somewhat restless.


So whatever I got, A1, A2, B1, or B2, I'd be discontent. I'd always find a way to be displeased of the outcome anyhow (and let's neglect the aspect of how high the result was, just the Mensa-eligible threshold). So that causes me a dilemma. There is no way I can 'win'.

In some applications, 'the only way to win is to not play at all'. I was thinking that'd probably be the solution in this problem. I'm not an expert in game theory, but however unfortunately here 'not playing' would fall into a choice for the category B, leading again to a B1 or B2, thus a loss.

In reality, amusingly, the only way for me to win is to add a category C, which stands for 'forgot the whole damn thing'. It has now happened to me twice. Approximately year ago I remembered Mensa and checked their local test times - and noticed that the coming Saturday had a single test coming up in my town. However, the week after I remember that particular test, and that I forgot to go to it - well, I won! My dilemma is still unsolved, so I don't have to pick anywhere in A1 - B2! Yay, C-category is the way to go. However now that I was reminded of this, I did check the test schedules again - and luckily there were no upcoming tests within a reasonable interval in our city. Victory, C-category again!

.........Did I take a Mensa test? ................................._____Yes_(A)__________No_(B)_____I forgot the thing (C)_ Did I pass?..............Yes_(1).|......A1......|.......B1.......|..........C1..........| .........................No__(2).|......A2......|.......B2.......|..........C2..........| .................................--------------------------------------------------------

This has so far guaranteed that I can sleep my nights in peace, to exaggerate:

- C1: Too bad, I would've been a Mensa member, but I forgot the whole thing and I'll continue my life like before. I don't think I'd lose anything.

- C2: Whew, I never got to know I wouldn't be eligible. Ignorance is bliss!

It's only a matter of time though when I consciously can't avoid C-category any more. I both wait and fear that day (again exaggeration, it's not really that big of a deal). For the time being I haven't ever taken a Mensa test. Here I completely omitted the factor of how much one would pass the test by (i.e. the exact value of IQ, not just the threshold). I hope I won't have to think about that any day soon.

I've heard rumors that people that attend to Mensa meetings are just like anybody. They play board games, talk about mundane things or sometimes more philosophical, but nothing out of the scope of e.g. a club for students of topic X in University. Maybe I'm shooting a fly with a cannon just because I want to shoot a cannon. Still, 'The Mensa-Dilemma' sounds pretty good, eh?

maanantai 7. marraskuuta 2016

Longitudinal modeling of ultrasensitive and traditional prostate-specific antigen and prediction of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy

Our paper on modeling PSA (Prostate-Specific Antigen) and exploring differences in more accurate panels (so-called ultrasensitive-PSA, u-PSA) and the traditional higher concentration ranges ("traditional-PSA") is out:

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep36161

Overall, ultrasensitive-PSA seems robust and has potential for early prediction of biochemical relapse. I acknowledge that there are a lot of criticism pointed towards ultrasensitive-PSA, e.g. that even low levels of PSA can be detected in women, but with feasible mathematical modeling one can predict PSA curvature quite early after radical prostatectomy. Hopefully this will lead towards more interest in exploring clinical potential in u-PSA.

Early detection of relapse may make the difference between life and death.

-TDL

torstai 3. marraskuuta 2016

Saksisatu

Saksisatu

(A Fairytale of Scissors)


Olipa kerran yksinäiset sakset. Ne olisivat kovin tahtoneet leikata kaikkea, mutta ne eivät tienneet mitä ja missä ne voisivat leikata. Siksipä sakset lähtivät etsimään mitä kaikkea kivaa voisi leikata.

Niinpä ne päättivät mennä olohuoneen sohvalle. Sieltä löytyi saksien iloiseksi onneksi äidin paita joka oli sohvanreunuksella! Sakset olivat juuri napsaisemassa äidin paidasta palasen, kun äiti parahti "Voi ei sakset! Älä vain leikkaa minun kaunista paitaani, sain sen juuri ja pidän siitä kovasti!". Sakset pelästyi ja sanoi "Voi, anteeksi! En minä tarkoittanut, tahdon vain kovasti löytää jotain saksittavaa."

Sitten sakset päättivät mennä isin työhuoneeseen. Siellä oli paljon jännittäviä työpapereita ja julisteita, ja sakset olivat juuri napsaisemassa isin julisteista ison palasen kun isi parahti "voi ei sakset! Minun tärkeät julisteeni, en niin tahtoisi että niitä saksittaisi! Minun pitää huomenna esittää niitä työkavereilleni ja en voi esittää niitä jos ne ovat riekaleina". Siihen sakset taas sanoivat "Voi anteeksi! En tiennyt niiden olevan tärkeitä, ne vain näyttivät niin kiinnostavilta."

Sitten sakset menivät makuuhuoneeseen, missä pikkusisko Vilja oli nukkumassa. Sakset näkivät Viljan kauniin peiton ja mietti mielessään, miten kauniita tilkkuja siitä saisi. Sakset olivat juuri napsaisemassa Viljan nukkumaviltistä aimo vonkaleen, kun Vilja heräsi ja rupesi itkemään: "Voi, minun peittoni - nyt on talvi ja minulle tulee niin kovin kylmä, jos minun peittoni leikataan!" Niinpä sakset taas pahoittelivat "Voi ei, en tietenkään tahdo että sinulle tulisi kylmä ja että heräisit - siitä olisi vain saanut niin kivoja pieniä tilkkuja. Kauniita unia Vilja!"

Vaan sittenpä Elea löysi sakset. "Hei sakset! Minä kovin tahtoisin leikata ja liimata ja askarrella, ja olen kuullut että sitä kovin haluaisit löytää leikattavaa. Tulisitko minun ystäväkseni askartelemaan pahvista ja paperista kaikkea kaunista?" Siitähän sakset vasta innostuivat "Vau! Voi onnen päivää, tätä minä juuri olen odottanut!" Niinpä Elea ja sakset viettivät joka päivä aikaa leikaten eri värisiä papereita ja pahveja ja tekivät niistä kauniita askartelulahjoja niin äidille, isille kuin Viljallekin, ja Eleasta ja saksista tuli todella hyvät ystävät.

Ja niin ne tekevät vielä tänäkin päivänä - loppu!